A Diplomatic Rupture Years in the Making
Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed all diplomatic ties, marking one of the most dramatic escalations in the Horn of Africa in years — and raising urgent questions about whether a localized conflict could ignite a regional war. [1]
The break came on Thursday after Ethiopia announced it was closing its embassy in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, and ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave the country within 48 hours, citing threats to national security. [2] Eritrea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by cutting ties entirely, saying Ethiopia's actions had left it with "no option but to reciprocate in kind and sever all diplomatic ties." [1]
The rupture is particularly striking given how recently the two countries were partners. In 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed normalized relations with Asmara after two decades of hostility, a rapprochement that helped earn him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. During Ethiopia's 2020–2022 Tigray civil war, Eritrean troops even fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). [2]
War Returns to Northern Ethiopia
The diplomatic collapse is unfolding against a backdrop of serious renewed fighting. Over the past week, clashes have erupted across three northern Ethiopian regions — Tigray, Amhara, and Afar — between Ethiopian federal forces and a rebel coalition led by the TPLF. [1]
Last month, the TPLF joined six other armed movements, including the Fano militia from Amhara, to form an alliance with the stated objective of removing Abiy Ahmed's government from power. [2] Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea of backing this coalition — an allegation Asmara has repeatedly denied. Eritrea's Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel told BBC Tigrinya that Ethiopia's governing Prosperity Party was "blaming neighbouring countries to divert attention from conflicts and other problems within Ethiopia." [2]
Federal forces and their allies appear to have made battlefield gains. Al Jazeera's bureau chief in Ethiopia, Mohammed Taha Tawakel, reported that government-aligned forces have taken control of several towns in Tigray and are closing in on the regional capital, Mekelle. [1] A pro-government militia separately claimed to have seized Milazat, just 20 kilometers southeast of Mekelle, though the BBC was unable to independently verify that claim. [2] In Afar, a pro-government armed group said it had recaptured the town of Erebti after rebel forces had briefly held it. [1]
Despite these advances, the humanitarian toll is already severe. A doctor in Alamata told the BBC that at least 52 civilians had been killed during three days of intense fighting earlier in the week. [2] Tens of thousands of people are estimated to have fled their homes in Afar alone. [2] The UN has warned that drone activity, air strikes, and road closures are severely disrupting humanitarian operations, with spokesman Stéphane Dujarric calling on all sides to guarantee safe and unhindered access to people in need. [2]
The conflict also appeared to reach the Ethiopian capital for the first time. Powerful explosions were heard overnight in Addis Ababa, including near Ethiopia's military headquarters. An AFP-cited diplomatic source said small drones were the most probable cause, and conflict monitor ACLED noted that rebel forces have previously used drones to target airbases and airports around the country. [1][2]
A Web of Regional Rivalries
The Ethiopia-Eritrea split is not happening in isolation. Ethiopia has simultaneously expelled an Egyptian diplomat and accused Egypt and Sudan of backing the same rebel forces it is fighting in the north. [1] Egypt responded by ordering an Ethiopian embassy official to leave within 48 hours, with an Egyptian official calling Ethiopia's initial move "regrettable and unjustified." [1]
The Ethiopia-Egypt relationship has been strained for years over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, which Cairo views as a threat to its water security. [2] Sudan's military-backed government, meanwhile, accuses Ethiopia of backing rebel forces in its own ongoing civil conflict — an allegation Addis Ababa rejects. [1]
Ahmed Soliman, senior research fellow at Chatham House's Africa programme, told Al Jazeera: "The conflicts in Ethiopia and Sudan have become more interconnected, with the Ethiopian government and Sudanese Armed Forces accusing each other of harbouring and equipping respective opposition forces from inside their own borders. Egypt has also been drawn into the escalation with its long-running enmity with Ethiopia over the Nile." [1]
How Far Could This Spread?
Analysts are openly worried. Laura Hammond, professor in development studies at SOAS University of London, told Al Jazeera that the risk of regional spillover is "already playing out," pointing to Eritrea's alleged support for the TPLF alliance. "There is a strong possibility that Eritrea will become more involved in the conflict on the ground inside Tigray if it continues much longer," she said, adding that the fighting could also "inflame relations with and inside Sudan." [1]
Martin Plaut, an analyst specializing in the Horn of Africa, described a "real danger" of wider conflagration. "The situation is extremely tense and it would only require a spark to ignite a conflagration that could engulf [Ethiopia and Eritrea], as well as neighbouring Sudan," he told Al Jazeera. [1]
Underlying much of the tension is Ethiopia's push for direct sea access — a landlocked country's strategic imperative that Eritrea interprets as a territorial threat to its own ports. [1][2] Abiy has repeatedly argued that sea access is essential to Ethiopia's long-term economic and security interests, while Eritrea has accused his government of harboring ambitions over its coastline. [2]
The current clashes are already the most severe since the 2020–2022 Tigray war, which an African Union mediator estimated killed around 600,000 people. [2] The African Union has urged Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to exercise restraint and resolve differences through diplomatic channels. [2]
What to Watch Next
The immediate focus will be on Mekelle. If federal forces attempt to take the Tigrayan capital by force, the humanitarian consequences could be catastrophic and the political fallout immense. Whether Eritrea moves from alleged covert support to overt military involvement on the ground will be a critical indicator of how far this conflict is prepared to travel. Communications blackouts in Tigray — with internet and phone lines cut — are making independent verification of battlefield claims extremely difficult, meaning the full picture of what is happening in the north remains dangerously unclear. [1][2]