The Parti Québécois has won Quebec's provincial election, Canadian media projected Monday night, returning the sovereigntist party to power for the first time in more than a decade and immediately raising the stakes for Prime Minister Mark Carney's vision of a unified Canada. [1]
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the PQ's leader, is set to become Quebec's next premier after a campaign in which he promised a third referendum on the province's independence from Canada — a pledge that lands just weeks before a separate independence-related vote is scheduled in Alberta. [1][2]
A Sharp Comeback After Near-Collapse
The result is a remarkable turnaround for a party that won just three seats in the 2022 provincial election. [2] The PQ last held power from 2012 to 2014, meaning Monday's victory ends a combined 12-year absence from government. [1][2]
The party's path back was eased significantly by the collapse of the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec, which had governed for eight years. The CAQ, a centre-right Quebec nationalist party that does not support independence, had made the protection of Quebec's identity and French language its defining cause, but its longtime leader François Legault steadily lost public support. [1][2] An attempt to revive the party by replacing Legault with Christine Fréchette as leader failed to resonate with voters; Fréchette conceded her own seat in Trois-Rivières shortly before 10 p.m. local time. [1]
"Governing Quebec is the greatest honour I have ever had," Fréchette said in her concession speech, adding that she would cooperate with Plamondon on the transition. [1]
The Quebec Liberal Party finished second in seat count, while the Quebec Conservative Party also gained ground. [1]
Minority Government, Major Ambitions
It remained unclear Monday night whether the PQ had secured the 64 seats required for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. [2] If it falls short, Plamondon will lead a minority government, requiring opposition support to pass major legislation and survive confidence votes — a constraint that could complicate his more confrontational pledges. [2]
Despite that uncertainty, Plamondon has set out an ambitious and deliberately combative agenda for his relationship with Ottawa. He has vowed to fight any increases in federally mandated immigration levels, framing it as a matter of provincial jurisdiction. [1] He has also pledged to "abolish the monarchy in Quebec," redirecting money currently spent on royal institutions toward social services. [1]
"We are going to do what we have to do to get the monarchy out of Quebec, repatriate those funds, and send them to social causes," Plamondon told reporters in late September. [1]
One specific target is Quebec's lieutenant-governor's office, which represents King Charles III in the province. Plamondon has proposed defunding it and spending the savings on tackling homelessness. [1] Legal experts and constitutional observers are expected to challenge such a move: the lieutenant-governor plays a central role in giving royal assent to provincial legislation, meaning defunding the office could throw the validity of future Quebec laws into question. [1] Plamondon has said he is prepared for a legal battle with the federal government. [1]
Plamondon was among the Quebec lawmakers who refused to swear allegiance to the King in 2022, a stance that helped pave the way for a provincial law making the oath of allegiance optional. [1]
The Referendum Question — and Its Timing
The centerpiece of Plamondon's campaign was a promise to hold a third referendum on Quebec independence during his first term in office. Quebec has held two previous votes on the question — in 1980 and 1995 — and rejected secession both times, with the 1995 result decided by an extremely narrow margin. [1][2] No referendum has been held in the three decades since. [2]
Crucially, Plamondon has said the vote would not happen while Donald Trump is in the White House, placing it after January 2029. [1][2] That timeline would likely push a third plebiscite to 2029 or 2030. [1]
The caveat matters, but it does not neutralize the political signal. Current polling suggests only about 30 percent of Quebecers support independence — low even by historical standards, according to Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal. [2] Beland told The Associated Press that the PQ's victory reflects Quebec's fragmented multiparty system rather than a genuine surge in secessionist sentiment. [2]
Still, Beland argued the optics carry weight beyond Quebec's borders. "Seeing that a pro-independence party won in Quebec barely two weeks before an independence-related referendum takes place in Alberta might suggest to the Trump administration that national unity remains a major issue in Canada despite the popularity of Mark Carney," he said. [2]
Carney's Dual Unity Challenge
For Carney, the timing is particularly delicate. He now faces the prospect of managing simultaneous separatist pressures at opposite ends of the country — a sovereigntist government in Quebec and an independence referendum approaching in Alberta. [1][2]
Carney's federal Liberals remain broadly popular in Quebec, though his support in the province had recently dipped following a breakdown in Canada-U.S. trade talks and the imposition of new American tariffs in August. [1] Analysts at Oxford Economics have projected a C$2 billion blow to Quebec's economy from the latest round of U.S. tariffs, making the province one of the hardest hit. [1]
Carney congratulated Plamondon on election night and adopted a conciliatory tone. "Building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada," he wrote on social media. "I look forward to working with you to support Québec's businesses and workers impacted by tariffs, create more good jobs, work to end homelessness, and get more homes built across Québec." [1]
Whether that cooperative framing survives contact with Plamondon's confrontational agenda on immigration, the monarchy, and ultimately sovereignty remains the central question of the new political era now opening in Canada.
What to Watch Next
The immediate focus will be on the final seat count — whether the PQ has a majority or must negotiate as a minority government will determine how quickly and forcefully Plamondon can move on his agenda. Alberta's independence-related referendum, scheduled later this month, will be the next major data point for Carney's unity challenge. Longer term, watch for early legal skirmishes over the lieutenant-governor's office and federal-provincial clashes on immigration policy, both of which Plamondon has signaled he intends to pursue regardless of the constitutional obstacles ahead.