Ukraine Hits Ryazan Refinery as Ceasefire Unravels
Ukraine struck an oil refinery near Ryazan — roughly 180 kilometres south of Moscow — on Thursday, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that Kyiv was finished observing a short-lived energy ceasefire it had never formally agreed to in the first place [1]. Russia's defence ministry confirmed the attack, saying four missiles and dozens of drones were intercepted and that falling debris ignited a fire at the site [3]. The strike marks a sharp escalation in a week already defined by collapsing trust between Kyiv and Washington.
The ceasefire in question was announced unilaterally by US President Donald Trump on Sunday, without public confirmation from either Kyiv or Moscow [1]. Ukraine said it suspended strikes on Russian energy infrastructure for several days following Trump's announcement, but Russia continued hitting Ukrainian power sites throughout that period [3]. The Kremlin never publicly stated it had agreed to any such deal [3].
"We're done," Zelenskyy told the Financial Times, signalling the end of Ukraine's restraint [3]. He said he would be willing to pause the strikes again, but only in exchange for US-supplied Patriot interceptors [1].
A Week of Compounding Pressure on Kyiv
The collapse of the ceasefire did not happen in isolation. It came at the end of a week in which Ukraine alleged that the United States had begun withdrawing two of its most critical forms of battlefield support: intelligence sharing and access to SpaceX's Starshield satellite service.
Zelenskyy told the FT that Ukrainian officials had been explicitly warned by their US counterparts that "if you will not stop [the strikes], we will block intelligence" [3]. Ukraine's military depends heavily on US early-warning alerts to mount effective air defences against incoming Russian aerial attacks [3]. Trump denied that any intelligence-sharing halt had taken place [1].
On the Starlink front, restrictions on Ukraine's military-grade Starshield service appeared to emerge on Tuesday evening, though the precise cause remained disputed [3]. SpaceX owner Elon Musk posted on X that only the US military and Trump held authority over Starshield's limits for clients — appearing to rule out a technical glitch [1]. Ukrainian defence sources later told the BBC that one element of the service, "operation while on the move," had been restored, though it remained unclear whether all restrictions had been lifted [3]. Officials said they were still working to clarify "the reasons and circumstances" behind the disruption [3].
Zelenskyy was direct about his interpretation: "It was not a technical problem, it was the will," he told the FT [3].
Musk, for his part, went further than defending the administration's position. In a post on X, he called for Zelenskyy to step down as Ukraine's leader: "Time for Zelensky to go," he wrote [1]. Trump had made a similar call the previous Saturday [1].
The Fuel Price Politics Behind the Ceasefire Push
The US pressure on Ukraine to halt refinery strikes was not purely military in motivation. Washington had framed a suspension of the attacks alongside a proposed deal for Ukraine to purchase 1.8 million tonnes of diesel from Russia — a transaction it argued would help reduce soaring fuel prices in the United States [1].
Trump's effort to lower fuel costs comes amid months of political fallout from the Iran war, which has sent energy prices climbing and complicated the administration's position ahead of midterm elections [3]. Zelenskyy acknowledged the political logic but questioned its morality, telling the FT: "This politically is not simple [in America], because everybody will want to ask how it can be when some people are surviving, fighting, dying — and you make . . . business with the guys with such aggression" [1].
Zelenskyy also suggested the arrangement was unlikely to be the last of its kind: "The question will be: when will the next deal be? Maybe it will be gas. Definitely it will be gas," he told the FT [3].
Russia's Escalation and the Human Toll
While Ukraine observed its brief pause, Russia did not reciprocate. Zelenskyy said more than 850 drones had been launched at dozens of Ukrainian cities and communities in the past day alone [3]. Local officials reported at least 13 people killed across Ukraine on Wednesday, including at least three in the central Kirovohrad region, which suffered its largest attack since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022 — nearly 360 drones launched over a 10-hour barrage [3]. Deaths were also reported in Donetsk, Kherson, and Volyn [3].
Russian President Vladimir Putin separately claimed Ukraine had also attempted to hit refineries on Wednesday, which Kyiv denied [3].
In the Black Sea, a drone attack set a chemical tanker on fire off the coast of Romania, leaving seven people missing, according to naval officials [3]. Moscow said it had struck two cargo ships carrying military cargo toward Ukraine's Odesa port [3].
Europe Steps In as Washington Steps Back
Against this backdrop, Zelenskyy travelled to Brussels on Thursday for a two-day summit of European leaders, pushing for tougher sanctions on Moscow and faster delivery of EU support [1]. He met NATO chief Mark Rutte, who said they had discussed "the importance of implementing an energy ceasefire as well as NATO allies' continuous support for Ukraine" [3].
European officials were pointed in their criticism of Washington's posture. Italy's Defence Minister Guido Crosetto told the BBC that restricting intelligence-sharing with Kyiv would be "a complete mistake," adding: "Peace will be achieved when Putin will be convinced that there is a stalemate... But if he sees a weakness on the Ukrainian front, if the United States takes its resources away, then Putin will think he can win, and so he will continue the war" [3]. Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten called on EU leaders to "step up" to ensure Ukraine prevails [1].
The EU has pledged $50 billion in support for Ukraine next year, a figure that nonetheless falls well short of the $175 billion Kyiv says it plans to spend on its defences in the same period [1].
What to Watch Next
The immediate questions are whether the Starshield restrictions will be fully lifted, whether US intelligence sharing resumes in any meaningful form, and whether Zelenskyy can extract Patriot interceptors from Washington as a condition for any renewed energy ceasefire. Longer term, his warning about a potential gas deal signals that the pattern of US economic pressure tied to battlefield concessions may not be over. How European leaders respond in Brussels — and whether they can credibly fill the gaps left by a wavering Washington — will shape the conflict's trajectory in the weeks ahead.
